Fitch agency does not see the reasons for the improvement of sovereign ratings in the developing countries of Europe, including Ukraine, despite expected increase in their economies in 2010-2011, Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper reports.
Ukraine's economy will be reduced by 16 percents this year (International Monetary Fund expects 14-percent drop), and in 2010-2011 it will grow by 3-4 percents annually. The main threat to financial stability of countries in the region, including Ukraine, Fitch says increase in budget deficits in developing countries with 1,1 percents of Gross Domestic Product in 2008 on average of 5,9 percents in 2009 (in 2010 4,6 percents are expected). Ukraine's state budget deficit this year, according to Fitch, is at 8.5 percents of Gross Domestic Product, forecasting a decline in 2010 by 5 percents. The total public debt of Ukraine can grow from 23,9 percents to 31,8 percents of Gross Domestic Product, continuing growth in 2010 to 36,1 percents, till the end of year.
According to economist of investment company Dragon Capital Elena Belan, increasing of budget deficit and national debt in a crisis is observed in almost all countries. There are no reasons to expect improvement in ratings of Ukraine. "The political risks are relevant for Ukraine, and especially - the threat of electoral growth of budget expenses", - says Elena Belan. "In the case of suspension of cooperation with the IMF, it will be much more difficult to restructure its debts, which could affect the sovereign rating" - the executive director of the International Fund of Blazer Oleg Ustenko claims.